Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Time for Oscar

Oscar statuettes (

The list of this year's nominees was just announced on Tuesday. Who are able to take the Academy statuette home? Although I would not take too serious look on Oscar (compared to Cannes, Venice and even Berlin Films Festivals), I have to admit it is a great fun to see the result and also — predict it. I still remember the gifts I got after a rather precise forecast on Oscar two years ago (I sold lots of them in online auctions... yummy). Here is the nominee list. I have to confess because I see none of candidates. However, you might still guess it right based on understanding of the Oscar's past results, common sense and a little bit intuition. According to a reporter of BBC, it is an unpredictable year with no front-runner. On the other hand, to me, it would be much interesting to tell in advance and get right.

Let's have a look on the acting categories. I would say Jamie Foxx will win the trophy — he has got numbers of national awards already for the portrayal of Ray Charles. He is new to you? Never mind, if he really got a stunning performance in the movie like what Hilary Swank did in "Boys Don't Cry" (1999), he would still hold the golden man; especially there is no strong rival. So how about Hilary Swank? She is a good actress but has to hit a role that is greatly matchable with her unique temperament, a boxer in "Million Dollar Baby" sounds suitable for her to win second time. However, I would rather pick Annette Bening for "Being Julia" or Imelda Staunton for "Vera Drake", and the former one gets my vote because she once lost under the strong hand of Hilary Swank in 2000.

It would be more difficult to guess in the supporting acting categories, while a number of black horses have the possibility to win the awards. I like Cate Blanchett and Natalie Portman more, so I choose Blanchett for her acclaimed portrayal for Katherine Hepburn. Thomas Haden Church for "Sideways" and Clive Owen for "Closer" seem to come closer to the statue... but I am more willing to select veteran Morgan Freeman. "The Aviator" would be the best picture and "Millon Dollar Baby" is the runner-up. Talented Clint Eastwood won the best director in 1992; it is not the time for his second victory yet, and Mike Leigh got the level to run only in Oscar (though he is one of the best in Britain). I think Martin Scorsese, the world's best director, might fulfil his dream this year after six times of nominations.

Here are my predictions:

Motion Picture - The Aviator
Achievement in Directing - Martin Scorsese
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role - Jamie Foxx
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role - Annette Bening
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role - Morgan Freeman
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role - Cate Blanchett
Foreign Language Film - Mar adentro
Animated Feature Film - Shrek 2

If you are interested to predict the result too, play it on Let's see the result on 27th February.